Every Good Western

Every good Western has a saloon scene where either the villain or misguided hero are caught cheating. Having given a backhanded endorsement of Ultimate Bet I have to mention this article I came across. It says that Ultimate Bet and Absolute Poker have had some software problems. It suggests that something dishonest may have been going on. A bit of reflection on what I wrote about a few posts back.

If you don't do anything online without a heightened sense of healthy paranoia you're just a fool. Whether some one can see your cards, identify the deck allowing them to determine your cards or get into your web cam to see your reactions and hear your comments, I consider all possible, the advantage is with the cheater. I think determining the cards to come down on the table is less likely, unless the cheater is an insider. I know when I have chatted during a game sometimes my screen flashes several times after my first chat message. I have a general rule to avoid chatting but once in a while I have to chime in. Sometimes people chat vigorously trying to get a response from some one.

Possible cheating is one of the reasons you should keep notes on players. Something all sites provide. And it is most likely safer to play when volumes are high. I'm sure the cheaters are few and far between. At least that is what I'd like to believe.

What surprised me is that the article says that poker sites do not put in protections against cheating. I know the sites advertise heavily that the cash transaction side of their business is completely safe. (the PPA is adamant that online poker is not illegal) I'm not sure why they wouldn't want to be known for having the most secure games on the web.

But I really like what Ultimate Bet does and their new show is great. You can see it online. If I got paid for all the free advertising I give on my various blogs I would be a rich man. "Cowboys Full; The Story of Poker" was recommended on the show. One of a few poker books I'd like to read if I get the chance. I have a real love of history. ...Another free prop.

I have read most of the book Misao gave me for my birthday. I found that much of what it says I already picked up intuitively. Other things, and the clearly determined odds, are a big help if I can stay disciplined. "Omaha High-Low Poker" is the book and I'm not seeing as many A,2 A,3 2,3 in my hands when playing online as the book suggests I should. I have found things to be cyclical. I have to just wait things out. Which begs the question concerning the shuffle online; Can you program random results? Maybe that is a big part of the problem with online poker.

If anyone has any input in that regard I'd enjoy reading your comments.

If you want a nearly guaranteed honest game.... pull your wallet out and put out the cash to play at a casino.

Celebrity Poker

Yes, poker players have become a type of celebrity and poker programing is on the rise. Every Internet poker site has some type of television programing association. (I'm not sure why NBC isn't showing "Face the Ace" in our area) Yes, you can enter, typically for free, online tournaments in which you can win a spot on television.

One of the reasons I enjoy playing on Ultimate bet is that Phil Hellmuth, Annie Duke and their crew use their celebrity to support charity. Maybe most other sites and players do also, but I haven't seen anything as prominent. I've seen much more than the two links I provide here. I started following Ultimate Bet on twitter based on their promotion for African relief.

I tried Poker Stars' tournaments to qualify for the FOX show they are aligned with. With my wife's heavy stare upon me, as she wants the Internet in the evenings, I pushed in many advantageous but risky situations trying to get a worthy stack to justify the time I was taking from Misao. Not to sit for hours with a minor stack that most likely wont bear fruit as the leader's stacks stand mountainous over your own and the blinds continue to rise. So I often didn't get very deep into the tournament.

But I decided when I play my best game I can get into the top 5% of any tournament. So with that determination I sat down to one of the FOX/Poker Stars tournaments. They always start full at 10,000 players; ten seated tables. So in the top 500 would be the top 5%. I finished 567th. I had a mid pair and gut shot straight draw. A 3 to 7 straight (3,4, 567). Really! So when pushed I went all-in before the river and missed the straight losing to top pair.

I could have just sat back and let my stack ride to get to the top 500. Using the full extent of my clock every time it was my bet, so others would go out on other tables as I waited. But that's not how I roll.

I now created an account with Absolute Poker, part of cerus and associated with Ultimate Bet, getting in on one of their twitter cash free rolls. These free rolls, that you need a twitter account to get the passwords too, come once a month and generally have a small field of good players. In this free roll of about 280 players the top 50 positions paid.

I was doing well but we had to leave for work; our small business. Running a bit late I hung in for a bit longer to look for some chances to go all-in. Folding a lot of hands, cause I ain't stupid, I patiently waited and got some cards I felt good about. An Ace Jack suited that paid, along with a K, 5 suited, both hitting the flush. Pocket nines all-in facing pocket Q's. I tripped on the flop. So when we left I was sitting in 14th place, top 50 being paid with over 100 left in the tournament. Leaving my position to just ride out the blinds, and ante's that come as the blinds rise. My computer went to sleep at the second 5 minute break at which point I was in 40th place with 67 players left. Not sure how the rest played out, only that I had $4 in my account when we got home several hours later. That means I finished at least 40th. 1st position paid $200.

At that stage of the tournament, fighting to make the money cut, many small stacks go all-in. The larger stacks can be pulled down, as it is easy to call when you have good cards since you are not risking much, but then keep losing these mini challenges. And getting very tight as you reach the money cut off I could have collected on the big blind if everyone folded. It's happened as people get really really tight trying to break the top 50.

Now if I can build these free roll winnings into a small fortune in tournament play could you claim it wasn't skill? Never having wired any money the only problem would be how to collect. I think my odds at celebrity are much greater by creating a fortune from literally nothing than making one of those TV shows.... unless I get really lucky.

Patterns

I finished just short of the final four tables last night in a NL Hold'm points freeroll of 321 tables. (keeping me up way too late) Last two tables being paid in points. Hanging on with only a fraction of an average stack until the last 50 tables. Then I climbed into the top 20 chip leaders before hitting a tough streak.

My last trip to the casino I went bust with my tiny stack. I went to play my best game, Omaha Hi/Lo, but, since they didn't have a table going, I played my weakest game; limit Texas Hold'm. I decided to only settle for a seat with my strongest game next time I get the chance.

I made most of my Internet play money fortune at heads up no limit Hold'm or at Omaha Hi/Lo. Lately I've been doing poorly at heads up, but have noticed some patterns with Internet play. For instance in a half hour period I hit trips four or five times but the other guy had a full house each time.

Or in a ring game hitting two pair on the flop but another guy hitting a long shot flush on the river. Another annoying pattern is being pushed off a small pair or suited connectors pre-flop and seeing you would have had trips or a flush on the flop. And as the hand plays out you see that those who raised, or a group that raised and re raised, had poor starting hands. When these hands happen over and over you wonder.

Or there are those tables where you just get great hands over and over but another always seems to have an even better hand. In heads up play I started scanning with my anti-virus/spy ware program that came with my new computer after the first few hands. After a few more hands my opponents often leave the table. Otherwise it goes like this. You trade hands for a while. Then you get up a bit before they clean you out with a series of really big hands and leave the table quickly. Just a pattern I noticed.

I'm not saying anything... I'm just saying.

Of course we have 'vista' with our new computer. I've come to blame all my problems on 'vista' these days. Three weeks til we can expect to get our free version of '7' in the mail.

Or there is the single table tournament games where there are four of you left but the other three seem to work together to keep each of their stacks viable. That's with the final three being paid of course. Just good old fashion graft.

A Different Kind of Investing

That fore mentioned talk show host also does a football pick contest. Included is a company from Wisconsin; American Sports Analysts. They have a service where they make picks, available for a fee on sporting events. I always thought that if I ever had a lot of money that this may be something better to invest in than the stock market.

They put their reputation behind their most highly ranked picks. If they are wrong their business will fail. The only factor in their success is that their picks be correct. Is it the same for your stock broker? What stake does a stock broker have in your buy paying off? Little to none.

With my past experience in the stock market I wonder if I would have done better with giving this company all my money. Though it would cut into my winnings to pay and go with 'only' their highest ranked picks, their record would suggest I most likely would have come out ahead.

A different Kind of Gambling

Until I can get my highest interest credit card paid off the opportunities to sit at a live poker table will be few and far between. And it will mean starting with a short stack even if I do get the chance. But unless I bust out in one game to build up a chunk of seed money that is how it will have to be.

But there is another gamble that I have chosen to put some money towards before taking care of the immediate demands of the monthly bills. That would be investing in the stock market. Yes, with a bit of extra cash coming in I put $300 into my near extinct investment account. Without a stock transaction soon a built in fee would have nearly liquidated the account as it was.

Misfortune hardly describes my past experience in the stock market, thank you Y2K. Having lost thousands and having to extract thousands for other needs at inopportune times my investments have sat in tatters for many a year now. Recently one of two companies I had a stake in went under leaving me with nothing but ten shares in a small electronics company that paid a dividend.

Yes the stock market is a gamble. I read a small Internet article where the author described the poker betting process in the same manner as investment strategy. In terms of risk and reward. What is the factor on your potential return versus the risk. So I put more money into this dividend paying stock buying 50 shares at $4. A stock that before this economic downturn almost never went under $7 and was known to go up over twice that at times. It had been lower than $3 at its lowest and I felt a hunch to buy more when it was more than a dime lower than $4. As it was, it was sitting above $4 and came down the day after I put my bid in. Since then it has gone up over $1. But it will be the following investments, after I decide to sell this bit of fortune, that will decide how good of a decision to divert these funds was.

The reality is that life is full of risk taking on one level or the other. Life requires the ability to make decisions. Decisions that require an investment and contain no guarantee that the desired result will occur or that some unknown factor will not frustrate the expected outcome. It requires knowledge and the ability to read people and environments. All realities that can be introduced in game play.

Some may think that poker, gambling with money, would be an inappropriate way of learning these skills. I often think fondly of playing sheep's head with my family. A game where the card play determines the outcome as well as the ability to determine who your unknown partner is. The nickle and dime stakes, now supposedly illegal in Wisconsin as a favor to certain campaign contributors, were hardly life changing gains or losses but plenty to heighten the senses and hone ones skills; ones abilities to read a situation and make informed decisions.

An argument in the online poker debate is that the micro stakes that the Internet can provide actually keep people with gambling problems from going bust in other aspects of their lives. And when more and more casinos are opening up, accessible to a larger and larger portion of the population, it would seem people with a problem have greater opportunity to get into games of much greater stakes 24 hours a day. As far as the Internet I know that in Korea, where Internet use and role play gaming has been recognized as a serious problem especially for the young, they have systems that cut users off after five hours a day. And also in my previously mentioned discussion with a gentleman at the gym, he brought up the fact that at a casino, in the gambling scene, you come across a lot of seedy people you have to be careful of.

People whose lives are destroyed by gambling have been found to have other problems that contributed to their failings. I heard a report by the BBC on the radio of someone who has done a study showing that gambling actually has a positive effect for many people. Why? Because it is incredibly fun, taking the risk and dreaming of potential unimaginable success, but at the same time not depending on, or expecting, to win. People with sound decision making processes interacting in a responsible fashion. Playing games is fun and they reflect the challenges and dreams we all have in life. A release everyone can enjoy from time to time whether at the poker table or... on the monopoly board if poker isn't your kind of game.

Luck

I debated with a gentleman at the gym the other day on whether poker was a game of skill or luck. He claimed that the fact casinos wont ban supposed good poker players, but will blackjack players, that poker was not a game of skill. The problem with that argument is in blackjack the house pays the winner and in poker the house takes a rake out of the pot no matter who wins or loses.

Poker is a game of skill but luck cannot be ignored. And in tournament play you often have to roll the dice. When your stack doesn't grow with the rising blinds at some point you have to go all-in with the first thing that looks like a respectable hand. Or you just have bad luck. When your nuts are busted on the river. Some may say the most money is lost at a table when more than one have a full house. A rare hand that you wouldn't usually expect there to be two of.

I happened to mention to my wife that she always seems to have good luck when I am around... And that I have bad luck when she is nearby. At least that is how it has been on our three trips to the casino to hit the poker room. My stack grew while she was off playing slots or perusing the casino, but I couldn't help but lose when she came into the room to watch or just wait in the poker room lobby.

We went to take advantage of a slot promotion where they give you $5 for playing $20 on the slot machine. Came away at a loss. When I went by myself I came out ahead nearly $6.

I noticed it with dealers also. You'll make several big hands with one dealer and then the dealer changes and the hands dry up. Or proximity with a dealer. I've had the same dealer on more than one occasion and when sitting directly next to them I did very poorly. But on another occasion when sitting across from them I did well.

I sat down at a table and an older lady across from me put in all her chips in despair on my first hand. She was their with a real grinder, perhaps her husband. She won and looked across at me with a smile. She mentioned she had given up. She had been losing all night. Then she won again... and again and she kept smiling. She obviously thought my arrival changed her fortune.

Then there are the people who just upset the whole atmosphere. The two guys who keep talking it up, standing saying they are going out for a cigarette but then don't go. Play another hand, never clear if they are going or staying. If they are in the next hand or not. Even the dealer seemed to get a bit annoyed. Messes up the whole mood, rhythm of the game. Language usually isn't a big problem. The dealers work hard to discourage any abusive language.

Of course in a ring game many of these misfortunes can be overcome with discipline play and keeping an even temperament. I had been doing poorly recently on the Internet with my play money stack rocketing down after going well beyond half a million. We just recently got a new more secure Internet connection and a new computer with the latest protection software and my luck has changed.



Only Frank could get away with those lyrics.

Our local casino in "Ante" their monthly publication actually has a star gazer. You can find not only your luck days but specific times down to the minute when your luck will be running high... If you can believe it.

A Day at the Races

Not today, but last Saturday. And not a day, but a couple of hours. And not at the races, but at the OTB room at the casino which is just a couple miles from my home.

A local talk show host has an investment in a race horse. Being well studied in the sport of horse racing he often has tips for races and horses he has confidence in. The Friday before last he had two such tips for The Travers Cup at Saratoga. I had put some money down on some extensive tips he had given in the past and lost more than I had won. If I had been more conservative in my bets, sticking with the top three horses he recommended, I would have come in ahead. For The Travers Cup last week he gave two picks, not the favorite, that I decided to pursue.

It was a $16 investment. What attracted me to this race was the potential for these two horses with the favorite to fill in the top three. So a $6 trifecta box. Than another $6 dollars in $2 exacta boxes and $2 each for his picks to place. Then, the wait for race 12, The Travers Cup.

I was early, or maybe it was just the rain that delayed the race. Capt. Candyman Can looked attractive to me in race 11 and thought of putting $2 to show but didn't. It would have paid. Thought of putting $4 on the favorite for race 12 to show, #4 Quality Road, but the rewards were too small for the investment. It would have paid. Then I thought of putting $2 on the race 12 long shot to show, #1 Hold Me Back, and that also would have paid.

Yes, #1 Hold Me Back, the long shot came in second messing up my chances at the trifecta and exacta boxes with #2 Charitable Man, the first tip coming in 4th, #4 Quality Road, the favorite coming in 3rd, and #6 Summer Bird, the second tip finishing first. The three making up my boxes. Summer Bird paid something over double to place.

But it was an interesting experience rubbing elbows and watching the races with some serious followers of the sport for awhile. And together with the potential for a great return, a good chance at hundreds of dollars, a day worthwhile. The information was obviously excellent. You just never know what's going to happen though. But you never stop learning. I may go back, not too soon, if I see a chance for some good returns investing in boxes, and hedging my bets with some solid picks and maybe $2 on a long shot potential.

A little windfall would have been great. Always seems to be opportunity before me but we just can't catch a break. It's as if something keeps holding me back.